Modeling and Analysis of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Protection and Isolation

Based on the SEIR model, two compartments for self-protection and isolation are introduced, and a more general infectious disease transmission model is proposed.Through qualitative analysis of the model, the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated, and the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point of the model is analyzed through eigenvalue theory and Routh-Hurwitz criterion.The numerical simulation and fitting results of COVID-19 virus show that the proposed SEIQRP model can effectively describe the dynamic transmission process of the infectious disease.In the model, the three parameters, i.e.protection rate, incubation period isolation rate, and infected person isolation rate play a very critical role in the spread of the disease.Raising people's awareness of self-protection, focusing on screening for patients in the incubation period, and isolating and treating infected people can effectively reduce the spread of infectious diseases. © 2023 Northeastern University.All rights reserved.

187 - Cruise Ship Infectious Disease Outbreak

This chapter examines infectious disease outbreak on a cruise ship, including the outbreaks and handling of 2020 Sars-CoV-2 on cruise ships early in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Modeling and Analysis of Infectious Disease Transmission Considering Protection and Isolation.

Based on the SEIR model, two compartments for self-protection and isolation are introduced, and a more general infectious disease transmission model is proposed. Through qualitative analysis of the model, the basic reproduction number of the model is calculated, and the local asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point of the model is analyzed through eigenvalue theory and Routh-Hurwitz criterion. The numerical simulation and fitting results of COVID-19 virus show that the proposed SEIQRP model can effectively describe the dynamic transmission process of the infectious disease. In the model, the three parameters, i. e. protection rate, incubation period isolation rate, and infected person isolation rate play a very critical role in the spread of the disease. Raising people' s awareness of self-protection, focusing on screening for patients in the incubation period, and isolating and treating infected people can effectively reduce the spread of infectious diseases. (English) [ FROM AUTHOR] 基于 SEIR 模型, 引入自我防护和隔离两个仓室, 提出一个更加通用的传染病传播模型. 通过对 模型进行定性分析, 计算模型的基本再生数, 通过特征值理论和 Routh - Hurwitz 判据, 分析模型的无病平衡 点和地方病平衡点的局部渐近稳定性. 数值模拟和 COVID - 19 病毒真实数据拟合结果表明, 所提出的 SEIQRP 模型能够有效地描述传染病的动态传播过程. 模型中防护率、潜伏期隔离率和感染者隔离率这三个 参数对疾病的传播起着非常关键的作用. 提高人们加强自我防护意识、重点排查潜伏期患者和对感染者进行 隔离治疗可以有效降低传染病的传播. (Chinese) [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Journal of Northeastern University (Natural Science) is the property of Dongbei Daxue Xuebao and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)

Does paid sick leave encourage staying at home? Evidence from the United States during a pandemic.

We study the impact of a temporary U.S. paid sick leave mandate that became effective April 1st, 2020 on self-quarantining, proxied by physical mobility behaviors gleaned from cellular devices. We study this policy using generalized difference-in-differences methods, leveraging pre-policy county-level heterogeneity in the share of workers likely eligible for paid sick leave benefits. We find that the policy leads to increased self-quarantining as proxied by staying home. We also find that COVID-19 confirmed cases decline post-policy.

Should international borders re-open? The impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 importation risk.

BACKGROUND: Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread across the world at an unprecedented pace, reaching over 200 countries and territories in less than three months. In response, many governments denied entry to travellers arriving from various countries affected by the virus. While several industries continue to experience economic losses due to the imposed interventions, it is unclear whether the different travel restrictions were successful in reducing COVID-19 importations. METHODS: Here we develop a comprehensive probabilistic framework to model daily COVID-19 importations, considering different travel bans. We quantify the temporal effects of the restrictions and elucidate the relationship between incidence rates in other countries, travel flows and the expected number of importations into the country under investigation. RESULTS: As a cases study, we evaluate the travel bans enforced by the Australian government. We find that international travel bans in Australia lowered COVID-19 importations by 87.68% (83.39 - 91.35) between January and June 2020. The presented framework can further be used to gain insights into how many importations to expect should borders re-open. CONCLUSIONS: While travel bans lowered the number of COVID-19 importations overall, the effectiveness of bans on individual countries varies widely and directly depends on the change in behaviour in returning residents and citizens. Authorities may consider the presented information when planning a phased re-opening of international borders.

Limiting mobility during COVID-19, when and to what level? An international comparative study using change point analysis.

The year 2020 saw a rapid global spread of the highly contagious novel coronavirus COVID-19. To halt the spread of the disease, decision makers and governments across the world have been forced to limit mobility and human interaction, which led to a complete lockdown and the closure of nonessential businesses and public places in many cities and countries. Although effective in curbing the spread of the disease, such measures have had major social and economic impacts, particularly at locations where a complete lockdown was required. In such unprecedented circumstances, decision makers were faced with the dilemma of deciding on how and when to limit mobility to curb the spread of the disease, while being considerate of the significant economic impacts of enforcing such a lockdown. Limited research in this area meant that decision makers were forced to experiment different courses of action without fully understanding the consequences of those actions. To address this critical gap and to provide decision makers with more insights on how to manage mobility during a global pandemic, this paper conducts statistical change point analysis of mobility data from 10 different countries with the aims of establishing links between mobility trends, COVID-19 infections, and COVID-19 mortality rates across different countries where different policies were adopted. Among other findings, the analysis revealed that slow responders experienced significantly higher mortality rates per 100,000 people and were forced to implement stricter lockdown strategies when compared to early responders. The analysis also shows that operating at 40% level of mobility is achievable if appropriate action is taken early enough. The findings of this study are extremely valuable in helping nations better manage a, highly anticipated, second wave of COVID-19 or any other highly contagious global pandemic.

Protecting health during COVID-19 and beyond: A global examination of paid sick leave design in 193 countries.

Well-designed paid sick leave is critical to ensure workers stay home when sick to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious pathogens, both when the economy is open and during an economic shutdown. To assess whether paid sick leave is available in countries around the world, we created and analysed a database of legislative guarantees of paid leave for personal illness in 193 UN member states. Original labour and social security legislation and global information on social security systems for each country were obtained and analysed by a multilingual research team using a common coding framework. While strong models exist across low- middle- and high-income countries, critical gaps that jeopardise health and economic security remain. 27% of countries do not guarantee paid sick leave from the first day of illness, essential to encouraging workers to stay home when they are sick and prevent spread. 58% of countries do not have explicit provisions to ensure self-employed and gig economy workers have access to paid sick leave benefits. Comprehensive paid sick leave policies that cover all workers are urgently needed if we are to reduce the spread of COVID-19, and be ready to respond to threats from new pathogens.